Although it often appears in other guises, much of what Ballonoff Consulting does, which gives special value to our products, is strategic thinking applied to practical problems. Our industry economic studies have given clients in-depth insight into what is coming next in their industries or markets and guided reforms such as demonstrated in our Kiev Project. Our comprehensive legal analyses help clients understand how to operate for the longer term in specific legal systems. Our price forecasts have a measured known accuracy, unique in the energy or perhaps any industry. Learn more at our discussion of Stragegic Analysis.
ENERGY PRICE FORECASTING
Strategic analysis often requires price forecasting. BCS is an innovator in energy price forecasts. Many energy price forecasts are available. Often, they are distributed for free. Sometimes they require a sizable subscription fee. If your company has used these forecasts then you know that most share a common problem: they are nearly always wrong, being much too high compared to the actually realized price. Statisticians and economists have a technical name for such forecasts: "irrational". You can find more on the history of price forecasting in the research paper
To our knowledge, only one energy price forecast consistently tests its own results by comparison to actually realized prices and has a cumulative mean error near zero. Which is, in other words, not irrational. This forecast is that of Ballonoff Consulting. We can not outguess the weather in short periods. But over medium term (1 to 12 months ahead) or longer periods, we seek, achieve (and measure!) price forecast accuracy. Our sample data available below compares our forecasts for monthly natural gas prices at each of 18 receipt points in the U.S., published from 1 month to 12 months in advance, to actual results, for 36 months 1992 - 1994.
If you require a price forecast with tested accuracy -- a measured variance which we tell you in advance, and a mean error near zero, the exact measure of which we also tell you in advance -- please contact us. We prepare forecasts only on a client basis.